War-risk cover for a single Gulf transit has moved from roughly 0.08% of hull value to north of 0.25% in nine days. On a modern VLCC that is the difference between a rounding error and a meaningful share of the voyage economics.
The revealing detail is behavioural. Charterers are paying the premium and sailing rather than rerouting around the Cape, which adds close to three weeks. That decision implies they price the disruption as short.
Insurance is the most honest forecast a market produces, because someone has to actually pay it.
Two Greek owners have quietly stopped bidding on Gulf cargoes altogether. Their tonnage has repositioned to the Atlantic basin, where rates are softer but the underwriting is boring.
Freight forward agreements for the fourth quarter have not moved commensurately, which suggests the paper market either disagrees with the underwriters or has not caught up. Historically, the underwriters are the ones who are early.
